Thursday, August 27, 2009

The magical straight line of U.S. GDP growth...


This is really absolutely my new favorite graph. One of the primary columns of the conservative movement of the last forty or so years has been the supposedly deadening effect that high tax rates have on gdp growth. This graph really puts a stake in all of that. I'm no expert on the history of tax law, but I do know that things have changed massively in the period of time that this graph represents. Yet, this is essentially a straight line. Yes, there is one huge bump, but that is obviously not related to tax policy, and it looks as though there is a slight overall increase in the growth rate over time, but that's more attributable to America's stability and standing in the world improving.

I would pay a good statistician in beer to superimpose on this graph changes in tax rates over time, as well as the Gini coefficient (or some more relavent indicator economic equality). I suspect that we would find that tax rates have next to nothing to do with gdp growth, and everything to do with income equality.

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